The joke on the world continues. Media keep talking about the Iranian election as if it were real. Anyone who believes that has some serious mental issues knowing that each candidate was approved by the religious fanatics. Which means this is all theater. So, let’s play along…
On July 5, Masoud Pezeshkian stunned the political world by winning Iran’s snap presidential election, emerging as a beacon of moderate reform in a sea of conservative expectation. Pledging to engage with the West, lift the suffocating Internet filters, and halt the morality police’s oppressive tactics against women, Pezeshkian’s promises ran counter to the clerical elite’s preferences. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had his sights set on a hardliner, much like Pezeshkian’s predecessor, Ebrahim Raisi, who met an untimely end in a helicopter crash in May. Most political analysts believed Khamenei would orchestrate the ascent of another rigid conservative.
🇮🇷 The new President of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, called Russia a valuable strategic ally of Iran.
As the head of state, Masoud Pezeshkian declared his readiness to support peace initiatives in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. pic.twitter.com/QlYdfVBukd— Roberto (@UniqueMongolia) July 13, 2024
Despite his supposed moderate rhetoric, Pezeshkian’s government might still mirror Raisi’s hardline approach. Throughout his campaign, Pezeshkian emphasized his dedication to the Islamic Republic’s core principles and Khamenei’s policies. The era of grand reformist promises seems to have faded, with Pezeshkian focusing on proving his loyalty to the supreme leader. This pragmatic stance led to dismal voter turnout: only 40 percent in the first round and 49 percent in the runoff, a far cry from the 80 percent turnout during the 1997 reformist wave.
While Pezeshkian’s win might introduce some policy shifts, they are likely to be modest. His administration could negotiate a limited nuclear deal with Washington and slightly ease social restrictions, particularly for the youth and women. However, Iran’s assertive regional policies and nuclear ambitions will persist, as will its strengthening alliances with China and Russia. The IRGC will continue to wield significant economic and political power.
#Iran‘s President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian is pictured along IRGC Quds Force commander Ismail Qaani and prominent conservative eulogist Saeed Haddadian on the Day of Ashura in Tehran. pic.twitter.com/PyVtNQcaWQ
— Iran Nuances (@IranNuances) July 16, 2024
Initially, Pezeshkian’s candidacy seemed improbable. A cardiac surgeon and veteran of the Iran-Iraq War, he had been disqualified from the 2021 presidential race and the 2024 parliamentary elections for criticizing the morality police after Mahsa Amini’s death. Khamenei’s intervention allowed his reinstatement, making him the sole reformist candidate permitted to run.
During the campaign, Pezeshkian’s political savvy shone. He rallied support from former reformist presidents Khatami and Rouhani and brought in Javad Zarif to strengthen his team. By promising economic revival and social freedoms, he gained traction with liberal voters. Simultaneously, he appealed to conservatives with religious rhetoric and a focus on social justice, assembling a broad coalition that secured him 42 percent of the first-round vote.
Pezeshkian: Iran will continue to prioritize cooperation with Russia and China
Iran’s new President Masoud Pezeshkian said that China and Russia have always supported us in difficult times. We deeply value this friendship. Iran will continue to prioritize cooperation with Russia… pic.twitter.com/73kBmFRHtF
— S p r i n t e r (@SprinterFamily) July 15, 2024
In the runoff, Pezeshkian faced Saeed Jalili, a hardliner with extreme views on women’s dress codes and national security. Pezeshkian’s campaign leveraged Jalili’s radical stances, warning that his election would further restrict social freedoms and challenge Khamenei’s authority. This strategy proved effective, leading to Pezeshkian’s nine-point victory.
As president, Pezeshkian is expected to implement incremental reforms such as reducing Internet censorship, enhancing healthcare and education, and loosening press restrictions. However, the conservative establishment, dominated by Khamenei and the IRGC, will limit his capacity for significant change.
Iran will maintain its robust regional alliances with terrorist groups like Hamas and Hezbollah and pursue cautious engagement with the West while fostering strong ties with China and Russia. Pezeshkian’s administration may seek a modest nuclear deal for sanctions relief but will avoid sweeping reforms, reflecting the enduring influence of Khamenei and the IRGC. All of this will be up in the air once Trump takes office.
Major Points
- Masoud Pezeshkian, a moderate, won Iran’s presidential election in a surprising victory.
- Despite moderate promises, Pezeshkian’s administration will likely adhere to Khamenei’s policies.
- Voter turnout was historically low, indicating widespread disillusionment.
- Pezeshkian may introduce limited social and economic reforms but will uphold Iran’s aggressive regional policies and alliances.
- His ability to implement significant changes is constrained by the conservative power structure.
RM Tomi – Reprinted with permission of Whatfinger News
