According to recent polls conducted across eight representative EU countries, the next European Parliament is expected to shift to the right. Despite this, moderate forces will still play a crucial role in forming coalitions and alliances to ensure the parliament remains functional.
European citizens have begun voting in the Netherlands, Ireland, and the Czech Republic, with the rest of the EU set to vote over the weekend. Predictions indicate that the moderate conservatives of the EPP (European People’s Party) will secure a clear majority in the overall vote. The socialists are projected to be the second-largest force, while the liberals of Renew Europe are expected to come in third, although they may lose a significant number of seats. Despite significant growth, the far-right is not predicted to dominate the new parliament.
The official polls came out last night for the EU elections and it’s shocking to see the government and Flip-Flop Sinn Fein candidates still getting any votes.According to the poll I’m in the running for a seat but let’s get the word out to make sure it happens.… pic.twitter.com/z8atbbeS29
— Niall Boylan (@Niall_Boylan) June 2, 2024
Tomasz Kaniecki, an analyst, noted that the majority of the new MEPs will still be pro-European, including some members from the ECR (European Conservatives and Reformists) group who do not challenge the core principles of the EU.
Germany
In Germany, the EPP is projected to achieve a major victory with just over 30% of the votes. The far-right AfD is expected to come in second, but its growth has slowed due to recent scandals involving some of its members. The SPD (Social Democrats) of Chancellor Olaf Scholz might surpass the AfD, as the gap between them is still too close to call. The Greens are expected to take fourth place, and the liberals of the FDP (Renew Europe) are losing ground. If these projections hold, it would be a challenging result for Germany’s current “traffic-light” coalition of the SPD, FDP, and Greens. The success of the CDU-CSU (EPP) could be seen as a positive reflection of the outgoing European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s leadership.
France
In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN), part of the Identity and Democracy group, is expected to perform strongly due to social discontent. The RN list, led by Jordan Bardella, is predicted to nearly double the seats of President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance liberals of Renew Europe. Macron’s popularity is currently low, which is likely to impact the performance of his party. The French Socialists (S&D) are gradually recovering and hope to surpass Renew Europe.
The most far-right EU parliament in history is likely heading for victory in the upcoming EU election. Over 373 million Europeans will be able to cast their vote, but with the far-right dominating the polls, the fate of the future European Parliament seems to have already been… pic.twitter.com/tapxUJNOr2
— red. (@redstreamnet) June 7, 2024
Italy
In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s far-right Brothers of Italy (FdI), part of the ECR group, is expected to perform well. The ECR group might support moderate forces to form a functional majority in the European Parliament. There is a possibility of a split between the ECR and Le Pen’s Identity and Democracy group, which could lead to the revival of a broad coalition relying on ECR votes for major decisions, particularly concerning Ukraine.
Spain
In Spain, the EPP is predicted to win the elections, but the socialists of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez are close behind, making the outcome uncertain. The far-right Vox (ECR) is expected to achieve a good score, although not as high as anticipated. The shift to the right in the EU is expected to have significant implications for EU institutions and the political landscape across the bloc.
Poland
In Poland, the political landscape is dominated by the ultraconservative PiS (ECR) and the centrist KO (EPP), led by former Prime Minister Donald Tusk. The PiS is currently leading in the polls, but the race is still too close to call, reflecting Poland’s unique political environment where the left has minimal influence.
Around 360 million people are invited to polling booths around Europe from June 6-9 to vote. It’s the 10th parliamentary election in the history of the European Union. But how is the EU Parliament actually formed? And what do its MEPs do? Here’s everything you need to know. pic.twitter.com/SDGWAUAE5G
— ARTE in English (@ARTEen) June 8, 2024
Overall, while the European Parliament is poised to shift to the right, moderate forces are expected to play a pivotal role in maintaining stability and functionality within the parliament.
Key Points:
i. Rightward Shift: European Parliament expected to shift to the right, with moderate conservatives (EPP) predicted to win a majority.
ii. Germany: EPP leads, far-right AfD in second, SPD close behind; disappointing results for Greens and FDP.
iii. France: National Rally of Marine Le Pen projected to dominate; Macron’s Renew Europe faces significant defeat.
iv. Italy: Giorgia Meloni’s far-right Brothers of Italy set to win big, potentially supporting moderate forces.
v. Pro-European Majority: Majority of MEPs will remain pro-European, with moderate forces crucial for forming coalitions to address geopolitical challenges like the war in Ukraine.
Al Santana – Reprinted with permission of Whatfinger News
