Nigel Farage is destined to once again help change the course of history
As the political campaign progresses, notable shifts in public support have emerged according to recent opinion polls. The Conservatives have seen a decline in support, currently averaging at 20%, which is a drop of four percentage points from the start of the campaign. Similarly, the Labour Party’s support has also decreased, now averaging at 41%, down three points since the campaign’s onset. Despite these declines, Labour maintains a substantial lead of approximately 20 points over the Conservatives.
NEW: Voting Intention by Age, 14th June
Conservatives are the third most popular party amongst 45-54 year olds and 55-64 year olds, trailing Labour and Reformhttps://t.co/5ZKOzy8PYC pic.twitter.com/IrBEYDXtSE
— Whitestone Insight (@WStoneInsight) June 14, 2024
Reform UK, on the other hand, is experiencing a surge in popularity, now averaging 16% in this week’s polls, an increase of five points since the election call. This rise includes a standout YouGov survey which, for the first time, placed Reform one point ahead of the Conservatives at 19%. However, this is an isolated result, as other polls continue to show the Conservatives maintaining a lead over Reform, albeit a narrowing one.
This situation presents a challenge for Conservative leader Rishi Sunak, who aimed to reclaim voters who have shifted to Reform, most of whom supported the Conservatives in 2019. Reform’s strategic decision to contest nearly every constituency in England, Scotland, and Wales, unlike its predecessor the Brexit Party in 2019, poses a significant threat to the Conservatives, particularly in areas they are striving to hold.
Labour are going to destroy us all. Vote Reform.https://t.co/cRDPCwjHX8
— Andrew Montford (@aDissentient) June 14, 2024
Adding to the issues of the campaign, Nigel Farage’s return to frontline politics as the leader of Reform and his candidacy in Clacton has boosted his party’s visibility and support. This move, announced on June 3, has seemingly increased Reform’s poll numbers by about three points.
Moreover, the Liberal Democrats are also showing signs of growth, now polling at 12%, an increase of two points. This could be contributing to the slight dip in Labour’s numbers.
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK torpedoes Rishi Sunak getting to ‘base camp’ to close gap on Labour, says polling expert Sir John Curtice https://t.co/3w0RzHje7t
— Nicholas Cecil (@nicholascecil) June 14, 2024
Major Points:
- Recent polls show a decline in support for both the Conservatives and Labour, with the Conservatives at 20% and Labour at 41%, both experiencing a drop of several points since the start of the campaign.
- Reform UK’s support has increased significantly, averaging 16% in recent polls, up five points since the election was called.
- A notable YouGov survey placed Reform UK ahead of the Conservatives by one point, although this result is an outlier among other polls.
- The return of Nigel Farage to frontline politics as Reform UK’s leader has seemingly boosted the party’s support, contributing to a three-point increase in their polling numbers.
- The Liberal Democrats have also gained in the polls, now at 12%, which may partly account for the decrease in Labour’s support.
Kirk Volo – Reprinted with permission of Whatfinger News
