If a projection is being made for almost anything, such as world population, it is always wrong. But let’s amuse ourselves with the latest.
The global population is now forecasted to reach its zenith much sooner than previously thought, driven by a significant drop in birth rates across some of the world’s largest nations, according to a new United Nations report.
In its biennial World Population Prospects report, the UN projects the global population will peak at approximately 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s. This marks a sharp revision from earlier forecasts and reflects a considerable reduction from the current 8.2 billion. By 2100, the population is expected to gradually decline to 10.2 billion—a figure 6% lower than what was projected a decade ago.
On days like these, let’s talk & deliberate upon raising awareness about global population issues.
Let’s work together for a sustainable future.
Every individual counts in building a better tomorrow. #WorldPopulationDay2024 pic.twitter.com/7waByW9vid
— Raninder Singh (@RaninderSingh) July 11, 2024
Back in 2022, the UN estimated the world population would top out at 10.4 billion by the 2080s. However, unforeseen declines in birth rates and a quicker drop in high-fertility regions have prompted a re-evaluation. “In some countries, the birth rate is now even lower than previously anticipated, and we are also seeing slightly faster declines in some high-fertility regions,” commented Li Junhua, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs.
This earlier and lower peak could have positive implications, potentially alleviating environmental pressures due to reduced human consumption. “The earlier and lower peak is a hopeful sign. This could mean reduced environmental pressures from human impacts due to lower aggregate consumption,” Li added.
Worldwide, women are now having, on average, one child fewer than they did in 1990. In more than half of all countries, the average number of live births per woman has dropped below the critical threshold of 2.1, necessary to maintain a stable population without migration. Nations such as China, South Korea, Spain, and Italy are witnessing “ultra-low” fertility rates.
The world’s population is expected to peak in the mid-2080s, according to a new @UN report.
Here’s how a growing population can affect the environment. #UNPopulation pic.twitter.com/05wgkG0TFD
— Pattrn (@pattrn) July 11, 2024
As of 2024, the population has already peaked in 63 countries, including China, Germany, Japan, and Russia. These nations are expected to see their total populations decrease by 14% over the next 30 years.
In stark contrast, nine countries, including Niger, Somalia, the Central African Republic, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, are poised for “very rapid growth,” with their populations projected to double between 2024 and 2054.
India’s Population To Peak In Early 2060s To 1.7 Billion, Then Decline: UN pic.twitter.com/7FIZfqoKPC
— Mobassir مبشر 🇮🇳🇵🇸 (@03_mobassir) July 12, 2024
For a significant number of countries—126 in total, including the United States, India, Indonesia, and Pakistan—the population is expected to peak in the latter half of the century or later.
The UN’s findings underscore the complex and shifting dynamics of global population growth, highlighting its far-reaching implications for future planning and resource distribution. As the world grapples with these new demographic realities, the focus will increasingly shift to managing both the challenges and opportunities presented by a declining and aging population.
Major Points
- Early Population Peak: The UN’s World Population Prospects report projects global population will peak at 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, earlier and lower than previous estimates.
- Declining Birth Rates: Many large countries face declining birth rates, leading to the revised population peak and an expected gradual decline to 10.2 billion by 2100.
- Environmental Implications: UN officials view the earlier and lower peak as positive, potentially reducing environmental pressures due to lower consumption.
- Falling Fertility Rates: Over half of all countries have fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, with “ultra-low” rates in nations like China, South Korea, Spain, and Italy.
- Regional Trends: Populations in 63 countries have already peaked and are set to decline, while nine countries, including Niger and Somalia, are expected to double their populations between 2024 and 2054.
Susan Guglielmo – Reprinted with permission of Whatfinger News
